Session-based wagering P&L and IRS tax-substantiation software for CPAs serving professional sports bettors; auto-imports bet slips and generates audit-ready session logs. · Tax Compliance Software
Do you own the customer, or does a gatekeeper stand between you and revenue?
E — Entry
How hard is this to copy once it works? A rival's existence isn't the question — the durability of their advantage is.
N — Need
Is demand proven with money rather than vibes?
T — Time
Can income detach from your hours, or did you buy yourself a job?
S — Scale
How far does it reach without linear cost?
Scored on the evidence below, against CENTS as we've adapted it plus a Buffett-style moat reading of every rival — the same referee for every idea, including the ones we generate ourselves. The verdict follows the arithmetic: we never relabel a score to make it read better, and the weakest commandment is always named. The exact rubric stays in-house so the scale can't be written for.
02 — The pace test — $1M/yr
At $79/mo (assumed category price), you need 1,055 subscribers for a $1M/yr pace.
Sherpa — Only tracked peer, $26k verified MRR — proves spend and could add session-log tax exports.
Generic bet trackers (spreadsheets/free apps) — Bettors already self-track for free; converting them to paid audit logs is the sell.
Incumbent CPA tax suites — Firms may prefer their existing workpaper tooling over another point solution.
04 — Demand evidence
Sherpa verified at $26k MRR — real recurring spend exists in this space.
Zero funded companies tracked near the space — lane uncontested by capital.
No Reddit signals found for these keywords — pull is unmeasured, not disproven.
X chatter essentially zero: no launches, no complaints, no named products in niche.
05 — Risks
Sportsbooks have no public APIs; scraping/CSV parsers break constantly and may violate ToS.
Total addressable market is small — professional US bettors and their CPAs.
IRS session-method guidance is unsettled; bad advice creates liability exposure.
Seasonal usage spikes at filing time undercut steady monthly retention.
06 — Kill switches — what kills this with one decision
Major sportsbooks (DraftKings/FanDuel) blocking automated slip export or scraping — Auto-import — the core promise — dies, leaving manual entry nobody pays for.
IRS or Treasury issuing simplified gambling reporting rules — Substantiation burden collapses and the product's reason to exist evaporates.
Sherpa shipping CPA-facing audit-ready session logs — Funded-adjacent incumbent absorbs the wedge before you get distribution.
Part III — The Plan if you insist on proceeding
07 — What this scan can't tell you
Whether Sherpa actually serves tax substantiation or just bet tracking is unknown.
No data on CPA firms' current willingness to pay per-seat for this.
Cannot assess legal/ToS feasibility of automated bet-slip import from major books.
Scores judge the market and business model — not your ability to execute. Verified MRR = independently tracked revenue; reviews/upvotes = platform-reported. Judged 2026-09-23.
08 — The wedge & the next step
Sell to CPA firms as a per-client audit-defense workpaper, not to bettors as a tracker.
Cheapest next step: Cold-call 15 CPAs who advertise gambling-tax services; ask how they build session logs today and what they'd pay.
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