ProbabilityGuard

Auto-generates and audits loot-box and gacha probability disclosures and age-rating declarations for mobile game studios, keeping monetization features compliant across jurisdictions; game studios pay per submission or via SaaS licensing. · gaming compliance automation

STOP DEAD SLOW FULL AHEAD
DEAD SLOW · CAUTIOUS
5.4 ShipScore / 10

Open lane with no tracked rival; demand for paid tooling unproven.

Condition: Three mid-size gacha studios pre-pay for a jurisdiction-audit before any build.

Part I — The Verdict what the instruments read
01 — The ShipScore breakdown
Control
6
C6 — direct SaaS to studios; Apple/Google policy shapes demand, not lifeline
Entry barriers
5
E5 — no tracked leader; only moat is maintained jurisdiction ruleset
Need
4
N4 — zero Reddit signals, no funded peers, no rival revenue in space
Time-freedom
6
T6 — productized rules engine, but legal review likely stays manual
Scale
6
S6 — global studios, yet buyers few and biggest ones in-house
What the five commandments measure
C — ControlDo you own the customer, or does a gatekeeper stand between you and revenue?
E — EntryHow hard is this to copy once it works? A rival's existence isn't the question — the durability of their advantage is.
N — NeedIs demand proven with money rather than vibes?
T — TimeCan income detach from your hours, or did you buy yourself a job?
S — ScaleHow far does it reach without linear cost?

Scored on the evidence below, against CENTS as we've adapted it plus a Buffett-style moat reading of every rival — the same referee for every idea, including the ones we generate ourselves. The verdict follows the arithmetic: we never relabel a score to make it read better, and the weakest commandment is always named. The exact rubric stays in-house so the scale can't be written for.

02 — The pace test — $1M/yr

At $300/mo (assumed category price), you need 278 subscribers for a $1M/yr pace.

Nearest tracked rivals on that curve:

Databuddy Analytics, Inc.
$1k 1%
Part II — The Evidence the receipts, good and bad
03 — Rival scan — corpus tracks 1 similar, 1 stalled under $2k MRR
Databuddy Analytics, Inc.verified MRR $1k (trustmrr)
04 — Demand evidence
05 — Risks
06 — Kill switches — what kills this with one decision
Part III — The Plan if you insist on proceeding
07 — What this scan can't tell you

Scores judge the market and business model — not your ability to execute. Verified MRR = independently tracked revenue; reviews/upvotes = platform-reported. Judged 2026-08-30.

08 — The wedge & the next step

Serve mid-size gacha studios going multi-region: auto-generate localized odds screens plus an Apple 3.1.1(b) audit trail, distributed through publishers and LiveOps partners.

Cheapest next step: Run a free odds-disclosure audit on 20 live gacha titles, send findings cold to their publishing leads, and count paid-pilot replies.

Not quite it? Spin the model

Business-model variations of this idea, engineered to beat 5.4 — different vertical, audience, model, or wedge. Same harsh scale. Pro feature.

One evidence-backed gap a day, free

Close — but conditional. Every morning the engine files one mined gap, scored on the same harsh scale as this one. Free at 7am AEST, unedited.

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Monitor this idea

Weekly re-scan against the live corpus. If the market moves this ShipScore by a point, or flips the verdict, you hear about it. Free while we're small.

ShipScore is scored on a rubric inspired by the CENTS framework by MJ DeMarco (The Millionaire Fastlane · UNSCRIPTED). Will It Ship is not affiliated with or endorsed by MJ DeMarco.
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